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The Presidential Election of the most influential country in the world is only a few days away. As many observers have noted, it is a historic election since the winning ticket will either have the first African-American President or the first woman Vice President. The election results will have implications beyond the US boundaries since both the campaigns have been promising a fundamental change in the way US conducts its domestic and international affairs. Understandably, the whole world is following the election with great interest.
Several polls and surveys have been conducted in different countries across the world to find which Presidential candidate is popul in these countries. A BBC poll conducted in 22 countries revealed that Democrat Barack Obama was preferred over Republican John McCain by a 4-to-1 margin. A survey conducted in Germany showed that 72 percent preferred Obama over McCain. It is not surprising that when Obama made a speech in Berlin, 200,000 people turned up to listen to him. The most comprehensive poll was conducted by Gallup. Gallup’s polls indicate that Obama is the overwhelming favorite in Europe, Africa (Obama’s father was a Kenyan), most of Middle East Asia and Developed Asia (Japan, S.Korea, Singapore and Australia).
Now here comes the most interesting part.
9 of 10 respondents in both India and Pakistan did not have an opinion/preference for either candidate. In summary, 7% of Indian respondents favored Obama and 2 % favored McCain. The response of Indians in the Gallup poll is remarkable considering the fact that India and US are moving closer to each other at economic, political and cultural levels. It is very much possible that the 10% who expressed their preference are from urban India who have personal stakes in the US election (probably their near and dear are in US).
. So, which candidate is good for India ? Obama has expressed the view that firms outsourcing jobs outside will not get tax breaks.
Obama is also reported to have voted to reduce the number of visas for foreign workers. This might have a negative impact on Indian IT firms. Obama is cautious about free trade whereas McCain is a strong supporter of free trade and has fewer difficulties with outsourcing. Obama also supports subsidies for American farmers.
It is not just Obama, his Democratic party has always been less enthusiastic about free trade and favor protectionism. It was during the presidency of Bill Clinton(considered to be a pro-Indian President), another Democrat, that US imposed sanctions against India for conducting the nuclear test. And it was a Republican President, George Bush, who redefined US’s relation with India and took it a much higher plane. He played a crucial role in ending India’s nuclear isolation. It is doubtful if Republicans would have imposed sanctions against India if they were in power. So, in general, Republicans are perceived to be better for Indo-US relations.
Eminent “Economic Times” columnist Swaminathan S. A. Aiyar discusses these issues in further detail and cautions Indians not to be too excited about an Obama victory. He sums up saying that an Obama victory will be great for US but not necessarily for India. Interestingly, Swaminathan Aiyar’s article was partially reprinted in the US newspaper Wall Street Journal as an argument against electing Obama. Wall Street Journal is a conservative and pro-Business newspaper owned by media Mogul Rupert Murdoch (The same guy who introduced Star TV in India) and is unabashedly anti-Obama.
To his credit, Obama recognizes the increasing influence of Indian-American community in US politics. He said that he supports the Indo-US nuclear deal, greeted the Sikh community on the tercentenary of Guru Granth and claims that he has a Hanuman idol in his home as a lucky charm. (This news led Hanuman Bhaktas in Delhi to conduct a 11 day pooja and sent a 15 kg idol to Obama)
Only time will tell how the result of the US presidential elections is going to affect the world in general and India in particular. Let us hope that whoever wins, the effect on the world is a positive one. In the meantime, let us enjoy the nail-biting finish to the presidential campaign on November 4th.
PS: Will we see an Indo-American as a US president soon ? There are already talks about Bobby Jindal’s suitability as a probable Republican Presidential candidate in 2012. Here are the arguments for and against his candidature
It is definitely getting interesting!!
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October 31st, 2008 at 5:00 am
Very well elucidated…
Thanks Madhavan for giving a quick snapshot!
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October 31st, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Very well Written. I fully agree that Republicans will work better for India.
I take issue with one comment though: You say that the WSJ is unabashedly anti Obama; yet in a recent editorial they support Obama.
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October 31st, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Thanks for you comments. Many of the recent articles and Op-eds in WSJ have been written by staunch Republicans. Many of them have been echoing the sentiment that Obama will rewrite the constitution and change USA to a socialist(and in some cases, communist)/welfare nation and portraying a doomsday scenario for businesses under an Obama administration. This made me come to a conclusion about the “unabashed” stance of WSJ.If we analyse it deeply, it is quite logical. WSJ thrives on a good business environment and their readers are mostly professionals(many above the $250K Tax threshold) whose interests are better served under Republicans. So they are playing to the gallery. But they seem to be trying to bring some neutrality in opinion since they also have readers who are Democrats. Here are some recent WSJ articles that support my thought.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122533157015082889.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122523804578478175.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122523845602478211.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122506507943370505.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122523858126178227.html
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November 1st, 2008 at 1:36 am
…and I always thought ‘Obama’ was the man (without prejudice). It would be quite interesting to look at the transition that is expected after the presidential polls. For sure, a radical change is in the making in US thought process. A recent global opinion survey mentioned the challenges US would have from developing economies (BRIC). I think the core philisophy of being an open market society would be put to acid test, considering the situation the global financial markets are in today. Lets hope for the best…
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November 1st, 2008 at 12:57 pm
An interesting perspective. My personal opinion is, no matter who comes to power, a republican or a democrat, their relationship with respect to India will not have a major difference. Ofcourse, the visa and the outsourcing policies might be different. However, when taken US alone, I feel that Obama is someone who is bringing in a change to the current situation. McCain’s policies doesn’t look very different to that of Bush.
I would like to see Obama win and see a change in dynamics. Lets face it, most of the jobs are outsourced to India for cheap labor than for the expertise. [eg: Call center]. I dont know how sustainable this is. If the US economy need those jobs for their people, then itz their prerogative. I want to see India emerge as a less dependent nation and Obama’s election as president will provide us the right opportunity to devise a framework, where our growth is based on our strengths not on others weakness.
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November 2nd, 2008 at 3:09 am
I wonder how difficult it will be to outsource more work to India after Mr. Obama takes the chair. Are we nearing the end of outsourcing now??
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November 3rd, 2008 at 8:08 am
Hi,
After all the hype created over the US presidential elections over the past months, the big day is finally here.
If you were given a choice who would you cast your vote for?
Don’t think anymore. Do it now. I did it.
http://www.iftheworldcouldvote.com/
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November 3rd, 2008 at 9:28 am
Folks I think outsourcing is here to stay. I don’t think outsourcing is no longer about cost arbitrage or staff augmentation.
Yes, there are players who still provide this, but the major corps are now moving towards more on gaining expertise and making it a specialization.
Driving it to an extent that the outsourcing organization perhaps don;t have any contextual knowledge about the work outsourced left with them (a bit of exaggeration). As it progresses I think things like outsourcing because of less cost would stop, but expertise will continue
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November 3rd, 2008 at 11:58 am
I agree with Karthick. Don’t think there will be a fallout on the relationship with India irrespective of who comes to power. Obama’s change motto has been an inspiration and I think the world is getting ready to see the change.
Remember this quote ?
“If you keep doing what you’ve always done, you will keep getting what you’ve always gotten” – Very much applies to McCain
Time for Change !!!
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November 4th, 2008 at 6:20 am
Despite Obama’s stance on outsourcing/h1b issues, American citizens of Indian origin, still might prefer him if they fall under the 250,000 $ regime, because all those middle class people want to ride out a recession. As things stand, the primary focus of the people (American PIO s are not an exception) is the economical situation, and everything else is of much less importance for them.This proves to be a good ground for Obama, and he played the sentiments very well, and I think it is going to pay off.
The situation was somewhat similar when Hitler and his Nazi party were promising a change in Germany and this came at a time when the Germans were paying a billion Reich marks for a loaf of bread. (No offence to Obama, and I am not comparing him to Hitler, or the Nazi party..I’m not here for any troubles of course! I just wanted to mention people’s reaction to such a difficult situation ) The Nazi’s became the largest party in the 1932 elections working the worst economic situation to their advantage. The point is naturally people who are suffering would want a change whether he is of Indian origin or some other ethnicity. As long as they are American citizens, and they think Obama can bring a change, I dont think it makes sense for them to reject Obama.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Folks,
Ibnlive and Businessweek had articles today(Nov.4).If you are interested, you can read those at
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/obama-or-mccain-who-should-india-root-for/77392-2.html
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/nov2008/gb2008113_673692.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+%2B+analysis
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November 4th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
(contd…)But what I dont understand is why people in India are backing Obama, as they will be the worst affected because of his policies, if he is to keep all the promises he made. Most of them seem to be ardent supporters of Obama..see here..http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Now_Bangalore_techies_root_for_Barack_Obama/articleshow/3669298.cms
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