“Prediction, especially about the future, is quite hard” said the famous physicist Niels Bohr.
I am not sure if he referred to the kind of predictions the astrologers ilk make. Maybe he was referring to providing an insight into what tomorrow has in store for us in terms of advancements in science and technology, or just its general impact on day to day events. When people form opinions on events after they have taken place, there is always a tag attached – it is the oft used phrase in such circumstances: “in hindsight”.
Opinions in hindsight have the benefit of repeatedly analyzing the event that just happened, from various angles, and then putting forth an opinion that is based on logic which therefore can be explained away. Future events or predictions are just that – mere hypotheses about what is likely; maybe the odds are improved depending on the probability of certain events happening more than the other, or some sequence of events from the past guiding the future event in a specific direction.
Putting all the jargon around probability and its basis on prediction aside, for a moment, I am wondering how much attention the exit polls (that various news love to put out around elections) are getting. Would these exit polls or predictions, as to the results of the elections, end up biasing the common man that is the voter? The media is looking for an avenue to analyze and even over-analyze at times, each and every aspect of a particular event. The polls and the drama surrounding the predictions provides more than enough fodder for the media to have a field day around all the data that is thrown up. Whether there is any worthwhile benefit to these polls is beyond my mere comprehension.
It is amazing to note that without any data or useful inputs, there is nothing to debate upon. Where there is a plethora of data, the analysis surrounding the combinations of the very same data isn’t too far behind. This is applicable to every single aspect of our lives – if we take a moment to look at our everyday life, every logical action of ours is based upon weighing pros and cons, or in other words a very analytical approach to analyzing data.
So, in my opinion, the poll predictions are just that – a bunch of data that overzealous political analysts love to debate on live television in the fervor that everyday lives depend on it. It would be that much more beneficial to the common voter if these esteemed political analysts would instead pick up and analyze the past performance (yes, a performance review) of each and every meaningful politician that is worth his / her salt – this would at least help the voter make a judicious decision rather than be biased by the opinions of polls that already determine the winner or loser before the first vote is even cast.
Image Credit: Theresa Thomson
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April 5th, 2009 at 12:45 am
Your idea to review performances rather than look at the crystal ball is very sensible. If our media implements this at least for the main candidates across the country, it will have a far reaching influence on weaning the electorate away from caste and religious considerations to more solid measurable yardsticks.
I wonder whether India Special has the means to attempt something like this.
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April 5th, 2009 at 3:56 am
Predicting the election is hard as people involved in prediction are not attached to ground realities and they tend to rely heavily on data collected from a small sample of voters. Best way to predict the outcome of election is to talk with local experts and politically interested people. That is what I and readers of my blog are trying to do. We are trying our own pre-poll prediction for our respective state. I know, not very scientific, but sure it is fun
http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-seat...
check out.
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April 5th, 2009 at 8:15 am
You bring up a good point, Babu. My take on this subject is best summarized in one sentence: if we are willing to debate endlessly upon every action and its consequence, why then when it comes to elections are we that much less forgiving? I know it is an oft repeated statement that in a democracy we control our fate by choosing the government, and I am seeing change for sure – but we aren't there yet, considering we have a plethora of parties to analyze and deal with, every single poll. Maybe we should have a system of just two political parties as Nars suggested in one of his posts on the subject.
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