The 2009 General Elections are about to finish on May 13th. To repeat the cliché, this has been one of the most lacklustre elections devoid of any defining issue. The results will be out on May 16th and after enormous negotitation and bargaining (horse-trading?), the new PM will be selected. Since exit-polls have been banned, there is no way to know how the poll went. Here I attempt to predict the outcome of the elections.
Before I proceed, let me explain the methodology. This is not an analysis based on any quantitative data inputs. I am solely relying on my intuition that I think I have gained by observing politics for a long time.
Without wasting any more time, let me present my analysis. I did a statewise prediction and summarised the numbers below.
The seats predicted for the pre-poll alliances are as below
| UPA | NDA | Left Front | |||
| INC | 130 | BJP | 136 | CPM | 25 |
| DMK | 5 | SS | 13 | CPI | 8 |
| RJD | 12 | JDU | 13 | RSP | 2 |
| NCP | 11 | SAD | 5 | AIFB | 3 |
| JMM | 3 | RLD | 7 | Other LF | 2 |
| LJP | 4 | AGP | 4 | ||
| JKNC | 1 | INLD | 1 | ||
| IUML | 1 | MNF | 1 | ||
| AIMM | 1 | ||||
| RPI | 1 | ||||
| Sikkim DF | 1 | ||||
| Other UPA | 4 | ||||
| PDP | 1 | ||||
| TMC | 7 | ||||
| UPA | 182 | NDA | 180 | Left | 40 |
The other parties might get these numbers of seats. They have been put into alliances that they may enter into, post-polls.
| Post Poll UPA allies | Post Poll NDA allies | Unpredictable parties | |||
| JDS | 6 | TDP | 20 | BSP | 29 |
| SP | 25 | BJD | 10 | RSP | 1 |
| TRS | 4 | PRJ | 5 | ||
| AIADMK | 17 | DMDK | 2 | ||
| MDMK | 4 | Independent & others | 14 | ||
| PMK | 4 | ||||
| UPA | 31 | NDA | 59 | Left | 51 |
On May 16th, I will look either very stupid or like Nostradamus.
Since every party is trying to be a king or a kingmaker, predicting who will be the PM is too hazardous. I will just wait and watch how things unfold. One thing is for sure, the government formation is going to be extremely ugly.
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