Elections to the 15^th Lok Sabha are underway. This election has been characterized as one devoid of any major campaign issue. It appears that both the two national parties –BJP and Congress- are losing their influence. They are losing out to smaller niche, rural parties and caste groups. This is turning out to be a great opportunity for a wide variety of smaller party leaders and the Left parties to exert their influence. They all are aiming at either becoming kings or king-makers.

All these parties and leaders have come together to form the Third Front. Their only common ideal? Ambition. Whenever the non-Congress, non-BJP lead alliances have ruled the country, there have been long periods of social, economic and political instability. The first non-Congress government formed by the Janata Party ruled for 3 years (1977-1980) and had two Prime ministers – Morarji Desai and Charan Singh. The next non-Congress, non-BJP government was the National Front government which lasted for 2 years (1989-1991) and had two Prime ministers – V.P.Singh and Chandrasekhar. The United Front government lasted less than 2 years (1996-1998) and had 2 Prime ministers – H.D. DeveGowda and I.K. Gujral.

If we look at the trend, we will notice that unstable Third Front governments and stable BJP/Congress led governments come to power alternately. So if that trend continues, we can be sure that we will see another unstable Third Front government coming to power this time.

Interestingly, two new groups seem to be emerging in the political scene. The first group claims it is a non-Congress, non-BJP and non-Third Front alliance and calls itself the Fourth Front. The constituents of the Front are the parties of the movie stars Praja Rajyam Party (of Chiranjeevi in Andhra Pradesh) and DMDK (of Vijaykanth in Tamil Nadu). The alliance within the UPA alliance – Lalu Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Mulayam Yadav , Sharad Pawar – also seem to be gravitating towards the Fourth Front.

The second is a disparate group of individuals who are mostly highly successful professionals in their chosen fields and have entered the politics with noble intentions. They are contesting as independents in urban constituencies that have higher number of educated middle class voters. They include Meera Sanyal from South Mumbai, Capt. Gopinath from South Bangalore, Sarath Babu from South Chennai, Ashish Saxena (a 30 year old social worker-) and Mallika Sarabhai from Ahmadabad among others.

The established parties are worried about these independents and hence brand them as spoilers and many voters wonder if elected, will they achieve anything worthwhile since they will not have any clout in the government. Since voters do not perceive them as winnable, they also have a lower chance of getting these votes.

It is very likely that these candidates do not win this election. But there is definitely hope for them for the next election. The Indian middle class is expanding and the number of urban Lok Sabha seats is increasing. The frustration of the middle class voters at non-performing politicians is increasing and if there is a viable alternative, these voters are definitely going to vote for that alternative.

In my mind, the best alternative is the formation of the Fifth Front. This Front should bring together all the capable independents under one fold and have a set of common manifesto. The candidates themselves should have individual manifestos that touch upon the developmental issues pertaining to their constituency.

They should also rope in similar minded people like Shashi Tharoor, K. Pandiarajan from other parties and parties like Lok Satta, Lok Paritran, Jago Party and Professionals Party of India. This Front will have no caste, regional or linguistic identity and will have the noble purpose of serving the country. The Front will focus on developmental activities for the countries and not try to divide the country along various lines.

Is it possible? The answer is yes. Is it probable? Tough to say. What do you think?

Popularity: 36%

The D-Day for Bangalore is just around the corner – Thursday, 23^rd April is the day when we go to the polls and guess who’s competing from Bangalore’s most prestigious constituency?

Captain Gopinath

Known for enabling the dream of the common man to fly, this entrepreneur, who’s now turned as an independent had a very interesting blog on IBN Live. Explaining his rationale for going it alone, he made it amply clear that he didn’t have a fascination to compete the elections for power or money. With assets to the tune of nearly 50 odd crores, Gopi’s clear that he is not in this for the money. Detailing his vision for the country, he’s got the educated elite of Bangalore rooting for him.

Leading the charge is Mohandas Pai, the HR head of Infosys.

Pitted as the “battle” for South Bangalore, this independent takes on the big wigs – BJP’s Ananth Kumar, a traditional winner from this place and a rising young Congressman, Krishna Byre Gowda. It’s certainly going to be an interesting battle and I really look forward to this outcome.

As someone who will vote day after for this constituency, here are a few thoughts that come to my mind:

1. Being an election for the Parliament, the key outcome to my mind is who is going to be the Prime Minister. Choosing to vote for the BJP or the Congress will mean that I have a clear choice as the final outcome with the PM candidate. While I personally believe that one is better than the other (now don’t ask me who), how does voting for Gopinath make a difference to the big picture?
2. I’ve seen the state of several independent candidates in the past – while they somehow manage to make it, they get bought out. But knowing Gopi, I’m assuming he won’t, or will he eventually?
3. I love the value proposition that he brings to the table – India needs a change and some responsible politicians. Mindful of the fact that change is never an overnight thing, should I just kick start that change and vote for him?

The campaign trail has been a very interesting one though. I’ve not had a chance to catch much of this as I have been on the road myself. That said, I have been reading a lot about it on the internet. The big three ( BJP, Congress & JD(S) just love the dirty game of mud slinging. Having a bitter rival in the current CM of the state to come and campaign for him, Ananth tried to cover up the huge divide that exists in the party’s leadership. Not wanting to lose an opportunity, the grand old man of Karnataka, Mr. Deve Gowda used this opportunity to say what a mess that BJP was in, revealing a snippet or two about how some of the BJP top brass wanted to quit and join him! Not wanting to be left behind, the Congress caught on to the “young” India campaign, bashing the idea of having an 81 year old as PM. Interesting to say the least!

Elsewhere, someone has been going about the campaign with ease and class – drawing the educated class into closed rooms, Gopi’s campaign is a fact based & non emotional. Driving into work this morning, I heard this first time voter from an engineering college come on the radio to campaign for Gopinath. His message was very simple – we need change and we know what Gopinath can do – give him a chance! Even before I could get up to work, my phone goes off with an SMS from Gopinath. It goes like this – “The BJP is not winning!, Captain Gopinath”.

Thursday is a real test. Bangalore has sworn to vote and vote in large numbers. Will they vote for a change? I’m not guessing the outcome of this one, but know for a fact that I will vote!

Popularity: 44%