What is the world’s largest prime number? Just kidding…this isn’t an article about math!

This is about RW Emerson’s quote: “Money often costs too much”; this is about the impact of the prime-lending rate (PLR) on the common man and its far-reaching consequences on the economic future of the country. To put it simply, this “prime” number is the interest rate that the central bank would charge for a loan that it lends to say, one of the banks.

Though the prime is an index measured in basis points, it’s a metric decided upon by the powers that manage the central bank, and it is adjusted every once so often. Barring economic casualties that seem to arise often of late, there is a specific schedule to evaluating and adjusting this rate.

There are various factors that go into how this rate is determined, and how it is altered, but that’s beyond the scope of this short article. When looked at a consumer’s perspective, the prime rate determines how the banks that deal with individuals (the ICICI’s and SBI’s of the country) go about lending money.

For example, if a private bank is aggressive at handing out loans, these loans might be offered to the customer at prime rate or just above it, with a marginal profit. This is where it all gets interesting – the banks in India currently don’t seem to distinguish between the individuals’ ability to pay off the loans and their past history at doing so, when doling out loans.

Of course, there is the lien that people need to provide and records of assets owned, etc to back up claims for loans at the higher priced housing levels, like those seen in the millions of rupees range. At certain lower levels like automobile loans or consumer purchases in the lower hundreds-of-thousands, there seems to be a near free-for-all eligibility to get hands on one of these loans.

There’s a very thin line that divides the consumers’ desire to upgrade their lifestyles with borrowed money and, to put it simply, the greed to not be able to distinguish between wants and needs depending on affordability.  The US economy, beginning with the sub-prime housing crisis, and now extending to credit difficulties caused by very poor liquidity at all levels imaginable, should be an important lesson for India.

As the saying goes, it is best to learn from the mistakes of others, and not repeat it oneself. The law makers need to encourage good, responsible behavior while at the same time make it difficult for people to stretch their economic freedom to levels where they can no longer sustain it. I am sure there are conflicting opinions between achieving rapid economic growth vs. sustained growth at slightly lower levels, by controlling credit, but this balance might be important to ensure the long-term health of the economy. This is where utilizing the “power of the prime” to ensure adequate liquidity levels becomes very important.

Unlike some of the developed Western economies, India doesn’t (yet) have a centrally reported “credit score” for every individual. To establish such a system, there needs to be a central database that pretty much tracks the “credit history” of every individual. This would mean tracking all transactions wherein there is not cash or an instant money transfer (debit purchases) involved. In other words, transactions that require borrowing of money would need to be reported by all the banks that offer credit cards or loans, to the central reporting / monitoring agency. This bipartisan agency would then come up with a ‘score’ for every single individual based on his / her past record with loans and promptness in paying off debt. I hope this system is included as part of the e-governance transformation the country is undergoing.

Given a transparent setup that everyone has access to, the lending institutions wouldn’t fall over one another in doling out sub-prime loans (and then have people head over heels in paying off these loans), and banks would really understand the risks behind each loan made. This results in accountability getting built into the system at all levels.

More importantly, it is never too late to reward good behavior!

Image Credit: Woodley Wonderworks

Popularity: 9%

Mark Twain very famously once remarked

Buy land, they are not making it anymore

Personally, I feel, never has any real estate investments been better advised than above.

My good friend, Ajay Dabas returned from the USA in 2005, and we huddled together to identify the areas where he could invest his hard earned money. The brief was clearly to focus on three factors, on which to scale the investment strategy.

Risk

On a 5 year horizon, how much would each investment avenue Grow / Stagnate / or depreciate

Terms

Entry level pricing to be benchmarked against the stay-in period of investment over a 3-5 year window

Liquidity

How easy would it be to profitably exit, in parts or in whole?

Our detailed study & exercise led us to the conviction that land is less volatile compared to mutual funds, stocks, equities, investment trusts etc. Haven’t we all experienced and witnessed the massive erosion of wealth & valuation in the past few months, on most investment instruments mentioned above?

Ajay Dabas is not one of them. He is rather happy for his strategic decision to choose land over the other mediums, as the preferred investment three years ago. As for valuations, his investments have already  ppreciated over 300%, and still going strong.

It would be a good idea to share the seven reasons why we feel that investing in land is the best option within real estate compared to the much more “touted & publicised options” of built up spaces in buildings.

1. Land is an evergreen, ever-growing asset. Brick & mortar assets like buildings (mall space / office blocks) deteriorate with time, whereas land only appreciates with time. Remember, some studies confirm that the value of any commercial building becomes ‘Zero’ in 27 years. Even when the building is useless & demolished, what is left behind is land.
2. Land is an asset from day one. It has very little lead time to mature from purchase to progress. For e.g. If you are an early bird buyer for a residential or commercial property, it typically takes 3-5 years for your asset to be registered in your name, and to draw returns from them. One keeps investing money & time for 3-5 years, without returns. Land can be registered immediately, and can start delivering returns.
3. Land is one asset which affords the most flexible options, within the real estate products. You can choose to buy any size & dimension, any value, anytime. Besides, land can be put to multiple use during the period of ownership. Let me elaborate. Agricultural land if invested into; can be used for farming. Post zoning, land use can be changed and commercially used. Anything build on it can be redeveloped, for e.g. the same piece of land could end up being used as warehouse premise, commercial, residential, etc.
4. Land affords simple investment management. Once bought, it doesn’t incur high costs compared to built-up products. It is most likely that the land bought is self sufficient in deriving the maintenance cost, whereas, the other products attract a continually incremental maintenance.
5. If we analyze the supply vs demand for real estate products in our country, land as a commodity would remain in demand for the next couple of decades. There is an acute demand for finished products, which would have to be constructed on LAND. Hence, investments in LAND are bound to grow, provided the buying strategy is right. For e.g: Delhi as a city state is forecasted to grow from 136 lakhs to 240 lakhs of population in the next decade. That necessitates almost another few thousands of hectares to be brought under development. Hence, invest in land today, rather than wait for appreciation at a much later date; at much lower returns.
6. With the economy projected to grow at a fast rate, and with disposable incomes being higher, aspiration of green living, bigger houses, better amenities, affordable luxuries etc. would take over. Those can be achieved on bigger land chunks being brought under development. Hence, invest in land today.
7. Land affords the “right balance in your real estate portfolio“. While investing in real estate, one needs to have a right product mix to hedge the risk, with one or two products which are low on risk and high on returns. That is what land promises to be.

Having said the above, we also advise our clients to exercise the right amount of caution and source expertise while buying land. Seek out experts rather than take the ‘gut-feelapproach’.

Analyze-understand-replicate success stories in land as a portfolio rather than try to re-write a success story. Remember, all leading developers in our country grew at this scorching pace on valuations, using land as the growth engine.

Happy Land-ing!!!

Popularity: 16%

Whole world is reeling under economic crisis. Growth rate of countries is slowing down. While some sectors have lost heavily, other sectors have revised their targets. Amidst all this turmoil, there is one industry that is making profits and guess what this could be?

It’s the epicenter of the financial tsunami-It’s the banking industry… The very cause of the turmoil in the world is now making money in India.

Is it the strict regulation of RBI or the traditional way of running the business that has helped the banks to be in profit ? Or is it the foresight of Indian banking system that has ensured that domestic banks are not heavily exposed to the credit derivatives like US banks ? The fact is that the Indian banks have not incurred huge losses unlike their counterparts in the US and rest of the world.

Banks which faced pressure on their margins till a couple of months back are now on their way to making money. With the RBI’s initiative to increase liquidity in the system, banks got huge amounts at their disposal for lending. Even the money that was lying with RBI and yielded very little profit is now available for banks for lending at higher rates. Banks are lending at higher than PLR to corporates due to the changes in circumstances and all these are helping banks to boost their bottom line.

Quite a few factors have contributed to the profit margin of banks:

1. Reserve Bank of India has cut CRR by 3.5 % and brought it down to 5.5%
2. It has cut the repo rate by 1.5 % and got it to 7.5%
3. RBI cut the SLR by 1% and got it to 24%.
4. Banks used to lend to companies at below BPLR but now they are lending at higher than BPLR as the risk profile has increased due to the hit on the margins of the companies.
5. Banks used to shell higher deposit rates. But with the markets falling, people are finding deposits as a safe place to park their money and banks have cut down the deposit rate.

All these have increased the profit margin of the banks by 3%.

While all sectors of the economy are facing the heat of economic meltdown, it is surprising to see that our domestic banks are really making money.

Banking in India has been indeed a blessing in disguise. What do you think ?

Popularity: 16%

Image Credit: Cardhouse

Everyday we hear Finance minister or RBI sources saying we are taking measures to increase liquidity in the market. But in reality not all banks are getting the cash using RBI directives as they are not able to fulfill the conditions of RBI and those banks that are getting cash are using it to quench the credit needs of their own customers rather than using it for secondary market purposes.

Market is experiencing liquidity pressure. Several corporates are not able to get overdrafts or loans from banks in current situation and are withdrawing the money the have invested in different debt schemes. Because of this fund houses are seeing lot of redemptions in Money and Liquid schemes. With no other alternative in place, MF houses are being forced to sell securities.

Sensing this Reserve bank on last Tuesday, through special repo has made 20,000 crores available to banks and asked them to make this money available for Mutual Funds.

If any commercial bank has securities more than SLR limit, they can show these to RBI and avail money on it. But not many banks have securities in excess of SLR and only 4 commercial banks could take Rs.3,500 crores.

RBI has asked Mutual Funds to sell or keep certificate of deposits with banks and avail money on them to return it to customers who are redeeming. If funds are able to get cash this way, they can avoid distress selling the securities in their portfolios at throw away price.

But in reality what has happened is not many banks availed of this facility from RBI and though few banks availed this facility from RBI, they are using this money for meeting the credit requirements of their customers.

Popularity: 5%